Without the gearbox having been sorted anything north of 270hp is certainly a sizeable risk, by the time you are north of 300hp it is a certainty it will fail and sometime very soon after being upgraded.
260 hp is a very sensible place to be and the gearbox is very unlikely to fail if not tracked, if tracked hard the likelihood goes up like all things on any road car.
go on youtube and search exige gearbox failure it is my car at Spa that was ~300hp
Having had 3rd gear go bang a few years ago i’m inclined to think that gearbox longevity is more to do with mechanical sympathy than BHP. Matching revs on downshifts will give your box a much easier time on road and track. Decent gear oil and lay off the kerbs.
So after a few trouble-free years of CN260 and careful shifts I lunched 3rd at Anglesey today. Hopefully get it opened next week to examine the damage.